Stateline, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

086
FXUS65 KREV 260935
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
235 AM PDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Much cooler conditions are expected today through Thursday, with
  highs 15 to 20 degrees below late May averages.

* Gusty winds will bring aviation and recreation concerns today
  through Wednesday morning.

* Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances return today with the
  highest overall chances Wednesday through Thursday, including
  light snow accumulations in the Sierra.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty winds are ongoing as a cold front makes its entry into far
northeast CA/northwest NV. While there will be some lulls in
valley areas through the pre-dawn hours, it won`t take long for
the gusts to mix down to the surface as the front continues
marching southward today. Lake Wind Advisories will be in effect
for most area lakes through at least this afternoon as wind gusts
range from 30-40 mph (with some gusts to 45 mph south of US-50).
For Pyramid and Walker lakes, a more northwest-north wind
direction along the longer axis of these lakes will keep choppy
conditions going overnight into Wednesday morning.

With the upper low and cold front both dropping southward into
CA/NV today, shower activity will spread into northeast
CA/northwest NV this morning, with more isolated activity moving
into the Tahoe basin and far western NV this afternoon. By
tonight, a band of rain showers is most likely to form across west
central NV, mainly near and east of US-95. Isolated lightning
could accompany some of the showers this afternoon as colder air
aloft near the low`s center provides a bit more instability, as
probability of thunder increases to 20-30% from western Lassen
County southward to the northern Tahoe basin. Snow levels settle
around 6500 ft for the Tahoe basin through this evening, although
the sparse shower coverage isn`t likely to yield any accumulating
snow prior to Wednesday.

For Wednesday and Thursday, chilly fall-like weather will prevail
with widespread cloud coverage keeping temperatures below 60
degrees even in lower elevations Wednesday, and not much recovery
on Thursday. Bands of showers with embedded lightning will
continue rotating around the main upper low as it meanders around
eastern CA-western NV, before this low lifts out and departs on
Friday. While the eventual track of this low will determine where
heavier precip occurs, the probability of receiving liquid totals
of at least 0.10" is quite high (80% or greater) regionwide. For
higher amounts of at least 0.50", the best chances (40-75%) are
showing up along the eastern Sierra and northward into Lassen
County/Surprise Valley, but even western NV valleys have a 20-40%
chance of receiving two-day totals of least 0.50".

For the Sierra, snow levels could drop as low as 5500-6000 feet by
early Wednesday morning, then fluctuate between 6500-7500 ft from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, before rising above
8000 feet by Thursday afternoon. The latest snowfall forecast has
trended upward a bit especially for the higher peaks and passes of
Mono County (Sonora, Tioga, and Mammoth Mountain), where overall
totals could end up in the 4-8" range. For the Tahoe region,
around 2" of snow is projected for Mt. Rose Summit, with less than
1" for other main passes. A rain-snow mix could occur at lower
Sierra elevations down to Lake Tahoe level, but we`re not
anticipating any impactful snow amounts at this time.

For Friday through this weekend, temperatures will rebound with
lingering shower chances mainly north of I-80 through Saturday, as
highs return to end of May averages by Sunday. Further warming and
dry conditions are likely for early next week as highs return to
the 80s for western NV valleys and 70s for Sierra communities. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Windy conditions with widespread turbulence continue today as a
cold front passes through the region, with periods of LLWS most
likely this morning when stronger FL100 wind gusts of 60-70 kt are
expected. Winds shift to a W-NW direction for most terminals
(except KTVL remains SSW) with gusts up to around 25-30 kt until
around 03Z this evening, with lighter winds overnight and through
Wednesday-Thursday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail although light showers may
begin to produce short-duration terrain obscurations for the
Tahoe and far western NV terminals as soon as this afternoon.
Chances for rain showers increase Wednesday-Thursday that could
bring MVFR conditions at times with longer periods of terrain
obscurations. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Gusty winds continue today and shift to a more northwest
  direction, although humidity will be increasing as a cold front
  sweeps through the region. However, one area to watch is
  southern Mineral County and the US-6 corridor in southeast Mono
  County, which could see a short duration of near-critical wind
  and humidity conditions this afternoon.

* Fire weather concerns become minimal Wednesday and Thursday due
  to much higher humidity and well below average temperatures,
  with increasing chances of showers producing wetting rainfall.
  MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday NVZ001.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon NVZ003.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM PDT
     Wednesday NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ072.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon CAZ073.

&&

$$